Michael Fagin offers (commercial) weather forecasts for the Himalaya's, he just sent out this general outlook on the Everest weather:
Issued March 20, 2007
Background
Discussing longer term weather trends is a tricky business to say the least. Some times just making a one day forecast is a challenge. However, we have been asked by some of our clients to discuss some of the recent weather patterns and what might be expected for this climbing season.
Recent Patterns
During the last two months precipitation has been above average. In fact during February precipitation was significantly above average. However, one must realize that precipitation during these months tends to represent just a very small percent of the yearly totals.
Summit winds over the last month have been slightly above long term average and at about 90 knots. Currently there is a jet stream close to the Everest summit which is not that uncommon for this time of the year.
Climbing Season Outlook
In several recent climbing seasons when there has been a moderate El Nino just before the start of climbing there have been persistently strong summit winds during May. El Nino is above average sea surface temperatures off the coast of the equatorial portion of South American. There was a weak El Nino during August through December 2006. However, starting early this year there has not an El Nino.
What these recent patterns suggest is “an average climbing” season as far as winds are concerned. How about the start of the monsoon. Also, will be an active storm season with depressions moving in from the Bay of Bengal. No early signs on this, but we will monitor this. Again, these are just generalizations on this climbing season and we will earn our keep with the regular daily forecasts that we provide
Michael Fagin
West Coast Weather, LLC
Redmond, Washington USA
425-869-1847
Toll free in US and Canada 877-969-4786
Cell 425-765-6972
www.westcoastweather.comwww.everestweather.com
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