Hi Hugh,
without a good pad, there is no use for a high quality bag! Just go into your bag and see how thick the layer is between your back and the ground: close to zero, all the down is compressed where you touch your pad & therefore the pad has to take over the role of insulator. The bag will insulate the part of your body that does not touch the ground, the pad the rest.
So it's very important to have a good pad, else you will freeze even with a minus40 bag...
For wintercamping a combination of a self inflatable (3/4) with a full length closed cell (can be thin) is minimally needed to prevent moisture on the bottom of the pad.
Good luck

Harry